Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BCH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 0.005215 0.005509 0.005811 0.006147 0.006510 0.006891 0.007322
2024-12-15 0.004694 0.005128 0.005596 0.006142 0.006762 0.007450 0.008274
2024-12-22 0.004338 0.004845 0.005409 0.006089 0.006891 0.007814 0.008967
2024-12-29 0.004029 0.004576 0.005200 0.005970 0.006905 0.008014 0.009448
2025-01-05 0.003788 0.004363 0.005031 0.005874 0.006923 0.008201 0.009905
2025-01-12 0.003638 0.004244 0.004962 0.005886 0.007062 0.008532 0.010551
2025-01-19 0.003394 0.003997 0.004720 0.005666 0.006889 0.008450 0.010642
2025-01-26 0.003291 0.003916 0.004677 0.005688 0.007023 0.008764 0.011276
2025-02-02 0.003261 0.003923 0.004741 0.005849 0.007341 0.009335 0.012296
2025-02-09 0.003132 0.003798 0.004631 0.005772 0.007335 0.009461 0.012689
2025-02-16 0.003037 0.003712 0.004565 0.005751 0.007399 0.009684 0.013232
2025-02-23 0.002939 0.003617 0.004484 0.005702 0.007421 0.009843 0.013685
2025-03-02 0.002900 0.003600 0.004506 0.005799 0.007655 0.010328 0.014684
2025-03-09 0.002824 0.003531 0.004456 0.005792 0.007740 0.010597 0.015365
2025-03-16 0.002738 0.003445 0.004379 0.005743 0.007760 0.010767 0.015894
2025-03-23 0.002636 0.003334 0.004264 0.005633 0.007681 0.010777 0.016155
2025-03-30 0.002547 0.003239 0.004166 0.005545 0.007629 0.010827 0.016481
2025-04-06 0.002497 0.003195 0.004138 0.005556 0.007728 0.011117 0.017247
2025-04-13 0.002380 0.003054 0.003969 0.005352 0.007486 0.010843 0.016985
2025-04-20 0.002341 0.003020 0.003951 0.005373 0.007595 0.011148 0.017795
2025-04-27 0.002343 0.003045 0.004017 0.005521 0.007911 0.011815 0.019332
2025-05-04 0.002279 0.002974 0.003942 0.005450 0.007872 0.011875 0.019716
2025-05-11 0.002232 0.002927 0.003900 0.005431 0.007913 0.012075 0.020391